The End of Abundance: Economics in a Post-Oil World

Despite what proponents of alternative energy and sustainable development may say, there is no substitute for abundant and cheap fossil fuels. Without taking this reality into account, writes John Michael Greer in The End of Abundance, dominant economic models cannot describe what the post-oil era will be like, and inhabitants of industrial societies cannot prepare for the profound changes that await them. Delving into the foundations of economic thought since Adam Smith, the author shows that neoclassical theory treats the Earth and its resources as inexhaustible factors of production. If a resource becomes scarce, the theory says, rising prices and the search for substitutes will restore the situation. But energy cannot follow this rule. The sun, wind, geothermal energy, tides, and other candidates to replace fossil fuels are sources of diffuse energy. To operate our current vehicles, computers, and factories, we would need to be able to concentrate this diffuse energy, something impossible without expending more energy than we will ultimately obtain… Thanks to alternative diffuse energies, humans may be able to heat the bathwater, but they will not be able to run the gigantic electric turbines required by our society of industrial transformation, consumption, gigantic travel, and electronic information. Choices will be made that will sound the death knell for growth, the constant socioeconomic progress of recent centuries, retirement for the elderly, and a thousand other things considered immutable. Ultimately, Greer writes, the entire industrial era, based on concentrated and accessible sources of energy, may have represented the greatest speculative bubble in history. In conclusion, while drawing a portrait of the world of tomorrow that explicitly evokes the Third World, John Michael Greer argues in favor of the intermediate technologies dear to EF Schumacher (Small is beautiful), political changes capable of softening the transition... and a good dose of stoicism. Coming from neo-Druidism, John Michael Greer has established himself as a key figure in the debate on peak oil and its consequences for our civilization. He is the author of The Long Descent: A User's Guide to the End of the Industrial Age (2008) and Ecotechnic Future (2009). The End of Abundance is his first political book translated into French.